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Just 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the reason of Villa's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem strangely fragile – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.

• The main striker may begin to scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.