🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.