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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."